Most likely
East on the leg from Pantelleria to Lampedusa
- Typical finish
- Thu 01:30
- 8 in 10 forecasts
- Wed 19:50 – Thu 12:20
- Fastest in
- 25 of 50
Best typical finish.
Rolex Middle Sea Race 2026 · race briefing · start Saturday 17 OctoberLean east on the leg from Pantelleria to Lampedusa. But it’s close.
We sailed a First 40 around the 2026 course through 50 versions of the latest ECMWF forecast. One choice separates the outcomes more than any other, which is how far east to sail on the leg from Pantelleria to Lampedusa.
Published Updated Forecast run Fri 16 Oct 00Z
- 50 forecasts
- First 40 at 92% of polar
- 605 NM course
- Typical finish Thu 01:30 CEST (4d 14h)
The race is over. We called a dead heat. The fleet found the coast. Read the review →
The options
Each strategy is sailed through all 50 forecasts, not just the ones that favour it. Point at a strategy to see its route.
Conservative
West on the leg from Pantelleria to Lampedusa
- Typical finish
- Thu 01:30
- 8 in 10 forecasts
- Wed 21:10 – Thu 12:10
- Fastest in
- 17 of 50
Best when the weather goes against you.
Alternative
West on the leg from Malta to the Messina Strait
- Typical finish
- Thu 02:30
- 8 in 10 forecasts
- Wed 21:10 – Thu 14:40
- Fastest in
- 8 of 50
A credible option the others beat.
In each card the shaded band covers 8 in 10 of the 50 finishes, the line is the typical finish, and each dot is one forecast.
The typical finish times of the top two options are within 3 minutes of each other on a five-day race, so this is a lean, not a lock. What separates them is how often each one wins.
Added on race day. Published after the start, from Saturday’s 00Z forecast, now with gusts, waves and the higher-resolution ICON-EU model. The routes, options and predictions above are unchanged from Friday’s final update.
The Egadi Islands to Pantelleria
South-easterly, 22 knots in a typical forecast, and 25 or more in 1 forecast in 10, with gusts of 29 to 33 knots. The windiest moment comes around Tue 10:30 CEST (Tue 07:40 to Tue 15:30 in 8 in 10 forecasts), and in 42 of 50 forecasts it’s a beat. Expect about 2 hours upwind in 20 knots or more (4 hours in 1 forecast in 10). Waves reach 1.9 m in a typical forecast and 2.2 m in 1 in 10, short and steep at around 6 seconds apart. The sharper ICON-EU model, which resolves more of the local acceleration, gives 22 knots, gusting 30, on this route around Tue 12:20 CEST. The official race weather briefing gives up to 28 knots, gusting 32 to 37. ICON-EU agrees, peaking at 28 knots and gusting around 40 in this channel on Tuesday night, after a 40-footer on this schedule has passed. Slower boats, or anyone who loses time on the north coast, should expect the worst of it.
Leg by leg
What the most likely route sails through, at the boat’s own position and time in each of the 50 forecasts. Each figure is a forecast’s windiest moment on that leg, shown as typical, with 1 forecast in 10 in brackets. The last column is the same route through ICON-EU, a sharper single forecast, showing wind / gusts.
| Leg | On the leg (CEST) | Wind, kn | Gusts, kn | Waves, m | Upwind | ICON-EU, kn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malta to the Messina Strait | Sat 11:10 – Sun 16:40 | SE 11 (11) | 15 (16) | 1.2 (1.2) | 3% | 11 / 16 |
| Through the Messina Strait | Sun 16:40 – Sun 18:50 | S 6 (7) | 14 (16) | 0.3 (0.3) | 0% | 7 / 13 |
| The Messina Strait to Stromboli | Sun 18:50 – Mon 03:30 | SE 11 (12) | 15 (17) | 0.4 (0.5) | 0% | 12 / 16 |
| Stromboli to Alicudi | Mon 03:30 – Mon 10:20 | E 11 (12) | 15 (16) | 0.5 (0.6) | 0% | 10 / 14 |
| Alicudi to the Egadi Islands | Mon 10:20 – Tue 08:00 | SE 16 (19) | 21 (25) | 0.9 (1.2) | 2% | 17 / 22 |
| The Egadi Islands to Pantelleria | Tue 08:00 – Tue 18:30 | SE 22 (25) | 29 (33) | 1.9 (2.2) | 84% | 22 / 30 |
| Pantelleria to Lampedusa | Tue 18:30 – Wed 11:10 | S 16 (19) | 24 (28) | 1.2 (1.4) | 79% | 16 / 22 |
| Lampedusa to Comino | Wed 11:10 – Thu 00:40 | NW 15 (18) | 21 (26) | 1.0 (1.3) | 0% | – |
| Comino to the finish | Thu 00:40 – Thu 02:00 | NW 12 (16) | 18 (22) | 0.7 (1.1) | 0% | – |
Highlighted legs reach 25 knots, gusts of 30, or 2.5 m waves in 1 forecast in 10, or about an hour or more beating in 20 knots. Forecast models smooth out the extra wind around headlands, islands and squalls, so expect more locally, and read the official weather briefing alongside this. ICON-EU: Deutscher Wetterdienst open data, licensed under CC BY 4.0.
The key question
Two decisions, one settled and one not. On Sunday night the fleet reaches the Aeolian Islands in an east to south-east breeze. In the lee of the islands and Sicily the forecasts give 4 to 6 knots, and ten to twenty miles north of the chain they give 9 to 12. With the official 11:10 start, every option now stays well north of the islands to keep that breeze, so treat that decision as made, with the usual caveat that a forecast at this resolution sees the broad shadow, not the one behind each island. Expect Tuesday to be the hardest part of the race. From Monday the breeze builds from the south-east west of Sicily, and the forecasts give 20 knots or more for the beat from the Egadi Islands to Pantelleria, with the higher-resolution models in the official weather briefing showing gusts into the low thirties and a building sea. The choice that separates the options comes on Tuesday, between Pantelleria and Lampedusa. Hold close to the direct line, or go about fifteen miles west of it. The typical finishes are within minutes of each other. The direct line is fastest in 25 of the 50 forecasts and the western option in 17, so this one is a coin toss, best settled on the day with Tuesday’s forecast and what the boats around you are doing.
How the recommendation has changed
| Version | Forecast run | Leaning | Margin | Fastest in |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 16 Oct 2026 Final update before the start, from Friday’s forecast and the official 11:10 start for this group. Every option now stays well north of the Aeolian Islands, and the key decision moves to Tuesday, from Pantelleria to Lampedusa, and it’s a dead heat. | Fri 16 Oct 00Z | East on the leg from Pantelleria to Lampedusa | 3 minutes (close) | 25 of 50 |
| Thu 15 Oct 2026 Update from Thursday’s forecast. The first night now favours going offshore in every option, and the key decision moves to the north coast of Sicily. | Thu 15 Oct 00Z | South on the leg from Alicudi to the Egadi Islands | 58 minutes (close) | 36 of 50 |
| Tue 13 Oct 2026 First look, from Tuesday’s forecast. | Tue 13 Oct 00Z | West on the leg from Malta to the Messina Strait | 82 minutes (close) | 26 of 50 |
How we worked it out
- Course modelled from the 2026 Sailing Instructions (Appendix A), with every island left on the required side, plus the Stromboli exclusion zone. Marks 1 and 2 off Valletta are simplified.
- Boat: an ORC-certified First 40 polar at 92% of its ORC-predicted speed, calibrated against three IRC 5 boats in the 2025 race.
- Forecast: ECMWF ensemble, 50 members, run Fri 16 Oct 00Z. Based on ECMWF open data, licensed under CC BY 4.0.
- Currents and tidal streams, including the Messina Strait, from the Copernicus Marine Mediterranean model (4 km, hourly).
- Not yet included: time lost tacking, gybing and changing sails. We will say how much that mattered in the review.
We will publish the post-race review after the finish, covering what the forecasts said, what the fleet did and what actually won.