Before major offshore races and rallies we route the course through every version of the forecast and publish what we find. Afterwards we publish what actually happened, and we look back at past editions for the lessons to learn and how the decisions could change the outcome.
Our earlier briefings, and how they held up. After an event we have briefed, we assess how accurate it was against what happened. For past events, we rebuild what the forecasts said at the time and ask what a skipper could have known from the forecasts.
Our Friday briefing said three routes for a First 40 would finish within an hour of each other. In the weather that actually happened, they finished within 13 min. Where the fleet beat our routes was close to land, on the first leg and at the Aeolian Islands, in detail our forecast was too coarse to see.
Read the review →On the morning of the ARC 2025 start, none of 51 forecasts had their best route crossing 25°W south of 24°N. 62% of the cruising fleet went south of it anyway. A year earlier the forecasts split. In both years, no forecast’s best route went to the deep south.
Read the retrospective →We sailed a First 40 around the 2026 course through 50 versions of the latest ECMWF forecast. One choice separates the outcomes more than any other, which is how far east to sail on the leg from Pantelleria to Lampedusa.
Read the briefing →The classic advice is to hold south until you’re sure you’re in the trades. We’ll show whether this year’s forecasts agree, against sensible comfort limits.
Bass Strait, the East Australian Current and a southerly change are the usual story. How far offshore to chase the current, and where will the change catch you?
The ARC’s racing cousin, sailed six weeks later in the year. How far south to dive for the trade winds, and when to gybe west for Antigua?
A breath of summer in a British winter, with trade-wind reaching between the islands, and wind shadows behind every one. Which shadows are worth the extra miles to avoid?
The season opener, and a cross-Channel tidal problem. When to cross the shipping lanes, and how to arrive off Le Havre with the stream rather than against it?
The first half of a Fastnet in miniature, with Portland Bill, Start Point and the Eddystone, there and back. Which tidal gates matter most, and what does missing one cost?
A big fleet and some of the strongest tides in Europe around the Channel Islands. Inside or outside the Casquets, and when to commit to the approach to Saint-Malo?
The last race before the Fastnet, a week later. We’ll use it as a dress rehearsal for the Fastnet routing, and show how the tidal decisions play out.
The Solent, Portland Bill, the Lizard and the Scillies are each a timing problem with a hard edge. Then the Celtic Sea, where the weather decision takes over. Which side of the rhumb line to the Rock?
An email when each briefing is published or updated, and the review afterwards. ARC 2026 and the Sydney Hobart are next. No spam, unsubscribe any time.
