Fleet check, Sunday 8 November
From the official positions up to 18:30 UTC and the race news.
Benoît Sineau set off his distress beacon on Ekinox-Rhétores at 13:30 UTC on Saturday. Race control diverted Jules Bonnier on Plastic Odyssey, and by 19:45 UTC Sineau was on board with him, safe and well. Ekinox-Rhétores has retired.
Then the wind went. Our 7 November forecast had a lull at the leaders’ position as the north-westerly gave way to the easterly, down to about 6.5 knots in a typical forecast by 06:00 today. Sogestran Seafrigo was doing 1 knot at 06:00. “There’s absolutely no wind, but the sea is still very unsettled,” Guillaume Pirouelle told the race organisers. The front six closed up from 55 NM apart on Saturday morning to 31 by 13:00 today, and Amarris took the lead. By 18:30 they were moving again at 8 to 13 knots.
The same forecast brings the lull to the north group tonight. At VSF Sports’ position it has the wind under 6 knots in 48 of the 50 forecasts by midnight. At 18:30 Patapain and VSF Sports were doing 2 to 4 knots, and VSF Sports had dropped from 82 NM behind the leader this morning to 113.
In the Ultim class, Tom Laperche finished on SVR Lazartigue at 02:31 UTC on Sunday 8 November, in 6 days 13 hours 27 minutes, a new race record, the organisers say.
Fleet check, Saturday 7 November
From the official positions up to 07:00 UTC and the race news. The routes further down start from Sogestran Seafrigo’s position at 07:00.
On X on Thursday, Axel Trehin, sixth in Class40 aboard Exalt, asked “Will you take the slap with or without momentum?” as the fleet closed on the low. Two days later the leaders are through it.
Our final briefing before the start called north at 30°W, at 43°N or 45°N, in 45 of the 50 forecasts. All 37 Class40s that have crossed so far went north, between 42 and 48.4°N. The leaders crossed at 43.5 to 43.9°N early on Thursday 5 November, about 12 hours ahead of our routed boat, because they have sailed faster than the 97% of polar we gave it.
For the stretch from 30°W to 40°W we gave a north-westerly of about 28 knots in a typical forecast and 36 in 1 in 10, gusting 41 to 54, with the windiest moment between Friday afternoon and Sunday morning. It came on Friday, at the early end. “Yesterday, we had sustained winds of 40 to 45 knots,” Guillaume Pirouelle on Sogestran Seafrigo told the race organisers on Saturday, and Achille Nebout on Amarris saw gusts of 40 to 43. Our gusts held up. Our wind figure needs a closer look. The ECMWF model’s own analysis of what actually happened puts the leaders’ tracks at no more than about 29 knots, so the forecast matched the model. The skippers saw far more, in squalls and fronts that a model with a 28 km grid smooths away, read from a masthead well above the 10-metre wind a forecast gives. Either way, leading with the typical 28 undersold it for a sailor. For a blow, we will lead with the 1 in 10 figure and the gusts.
After 30°W the leaders split. Sogestran Seafrigo, Amarris and the boats around them turned south-south-west, upwind of the worst of it. Ekinox, VSF Sports, Patapain and Crédit Mutuel held north, at 40 to 42°N, and sailed close to the centre of the low, where the model has the wind down to 4 to 8 knots at times on Friday. By 07:00 today the two groups were about 300 NM apart. Overnight, while the leaders were slow, the north group gained 15 to 50 NM on distance to the finish and Ekinox climbed from 10th to 6th. At dawn the leaders found the new breeze and were doing 17 to 18 knots.
From here our forecast does not expect the north group to gain. Routed from its own 07:00 position at the same pace, VSF Sports finishes about 7 hours after Sogestran Seafrigo, which is about the 100 NM it is behind now. Both groups converge on the same road south-west, crossing 45°W at 31 to 34°N.
“Truly brutal!” said Nebout. Of the 49 Class40s that started, 40 are racing normally. Five have retired, among them Alderan, dismasted on Friday, and four are stopped, diverting or no longer reporting.
In the Ultim class, Tom Laperche on SVR Lazartigue is due in Guadeloupe tonight, beating into a south-westerly to the finish, with no trade wind at all. That is where the Class40s are heading too.
Fleet check, Wednesday 4 November
From the official positions at 10:00 UTC. The routes further down are still the ones we published before the start.
The Class40s have split ahead of the low deepening near the Azores. Solano leads the official ranking on its own, 16 NM from the rhumb line and about 145 NM south of the next boats. Every other boat in the top 25 is between 100 and 280 NM north-west of the line, and so are 42 of the 44 Class40s still racing. Furthest out among the leaders are Maccaferri Futura and Crédit Mutuel, more than 240 NM north-west.
The ranking measures the distance left to the finish, so a boat near the straight line leads for now, and a boat heading north gives up places until its angle pays. Crédit Mutuel has still climbed from 17th on Tuesday morning to 5th from out there.
Our final briefing before the start had the fastest route crossing 30°W north of 40°N in 45 of the 50 forecasts, at 43°N or 45°N, and too close to call between them. The pack is now at 45.5 to 47°N, at 24 to 25°W, while Solano is at 43.5°N and still heading south-west. The mid-race update will show where each boat crosses 30°W and how that played out.
Then comes the price of going north. For the stretch from 30°W to 40°W, from late on Thursday 5 November, our final briefing gave about 28 knots, gusting to 41 and 54 in 1 forecast in 10, with seas of 4.5 to 6 metres. Sailed solo, how boat and skipper come through it matters as much as the route.
It has been a fast and punishing first three days. Of the 49 Class40s that started, 44 are still racing, with two retired and three stopped or diverting for repairs.
Next update on Saturday 7 November, with where each boat crossed 30°W, a new route for the second half from the newest forecast, and a sharper finish window.
